Shanghai raws li tus neeg sawv cev ntawm kev rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom, cia kev cia siab rov ua dua, tab sis nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej ntawm steel kev lag luam yog thawj plaub lub hlis ntawm cov ntaub ntawv melancholy.
Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis 2022, lub teb chaws crude steel ntau lawm poob 10.3% xyoo-rau-xyoo, npua hlau ntau lawm poob 9.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab steel ntau lawm poob 5.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Ntawm lawv, nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis, lub teb chaws crude steel tso zis poob 5.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo, npua hlau ntau lawm tiaj tus thiab steel tso zis poob 5.8% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Lub caij no, nyob rau hauv thawj plaub lub hlis ntawm 2022, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm vaj tse peev poob los ntawm 2.7%, infrastructure peev loj hlob los ntawm 6.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev lag luam peev loj hlob los ntawm 12.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Cov no yog peb qhov chaw ze ze rau "kev thov steel", nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam rau vaj tse thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim khoom yuav tsum tau xav tias yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob, kev tsim kho vaj tse yog pinned rau kev cia siab ntau dua.
6.5%, nws zoo li tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse tsis yog qhov phem, tab sis raws li kev sib tham ntawm Economic Observer, infrastructure tam sim no qhia tau hais tias tsis muaj kev siv zog rub tawm.Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv kev sib tham nrog cov tuam txhab kev tsim kho tshuab, lawv hais tias, tam sim no, cov nuj nqis ntawm tsoom fwv hauv zos, nrog rau cov nyiaj them nqi hluav taws xob muaj ntau dua, uas ua rau kev nqis peev hauv infrastructure, txawm tias nws loj heev, tab sis kuj. yuav tsum tau siv ib qho tseem ceeb los ua kom tiav qhov project dhau los, kev ua tau zoo rau cov ntaub ntawv, uas yog, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse yog qhov tseem ceeb, tab sis qhov tseeb rub ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam yog qhov txwv.
Tsis tas li ntawd, qee cov tuam txhab brokerage ntseeg tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov vaj tse nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Plaub Hlis, tab sis kuj tsis tuaj yeem tsis quav ntsej ntau yam, thawj lub ntsiab lus yog qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev nce nqi, thawj peb lub hlis twg PPI nce xyoo-rau-xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm 8.7%, lub ntsiab lus. hais tias qhov tseeb peev loj hlob tus nqi net ntawm tus nqi yam tej zaum yuav tsis yog li ntawd.Piv txwv li, raws li cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau kev tsim kho txoj kev, kev siv asphalt hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg poob 24.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thaum tus nqi nce 22.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Lub ntsiab lus thib ob yog lub caij nyoog, qhov nyiaj ntawm cov peev txheej hauv kev lag luam hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg raws li qhov feem pua ntawm lub xyoo yog feem ntau qis (feem ntau tsis pub tshaj 15%), uas txhais tau hais tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi yog qhov hloov pauv loj heev.Tsis tas li ntawd, los ntawm cov peev txheej, kev siv nyiaj txiag ua ntej thiab lub zog tshwj xeeb yog qhov tseem ceeb, ua rau yuav luag tag nrho cov nyiaj xyoo-rau-xyoo nce hauv cov nyiaj txiag infrastructure.
Infrastructure, vaj tse, kev tsim khoom, tuaj yeem pab txhawb "steel demand" hauv 2022?Lub Rau Hli 1, cov ntawv xov xwm xam phaj steel network kws tshawb fawb Zeng Liang.
Tus Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam: Hauv koj qhov kev txiav txim siab, puas yog lub lag luam hlau tau pib qhov kev thov rov pib ua haujlwm thiab kev tsim khoom tom qab kev sib kis tam sim no?
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv taug qab los ntawm steel network, nrog rau kev txhim kho pom tseeb ntawm kev sib kis thoob plaws hauv lub tebchaws, qhov boom Performance index ntawm kev lag luam steel hauv tsev tau rov qab los, thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam steel saw tau zoo.
Tshwj xeeb, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm steel ntau lawm, raws li lub Tsib Hlis 25, qhov pib tus nqi ntawm domestic ywj siab hluav taws xob arc rauv mills taug qab los ntawm Steel Network yog 66.67%, nce 3.03 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli;qhov pib tus nqi ntawm blast furnace mills yog 77%, nce 0.96 feem pua cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli-rau-hli.Los ntawm lub xyoo-rau-xyoo foundations, lub domestic hluav taws xob arc rauv thiab blast furnace steel mills pib ua hauj lwm poob los ntawm 15.15 feem pua cov ntsiab lus thiab 2.56 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus, feem ntau yog vim cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov hlau tsis tshua muaj, uas cuam tshuam rau kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm qee qhov. steel mills.Los ntawm cov hlau ncig sab, nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis 27th, tag nrho cov nqi ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg thauj los ntawm Fat Cat Logistics txheeb cais tau nce 2.07% lub lim tiam-rau-lub limtiam, qhia tias cov hlau ncig tau pib tuaj tos nrog kev maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev thauj mus los.
Tsis tas li ntawd, los ntawm cov kev xav tau ntawm steel, nrog rau tag nrho cov kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis ntawm kev lag luam steel hauv lub Tsib Hlis zoo li tsis muaj zog, maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev thauj mus los thiab kev thauj mus los, cov tuam txhab steel hlau tau pib rov ua haujlwm thiab kev tsim khoom, kev lag luam hauv qab steel boom. index nce me ntsis hli-rau-hli.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb steel, cov kev lag luam steel qis qis PMI qhov Performance index yog 49.02% nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis 2022, nce 0.19 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub hli.
Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam: Rau Lub Ib Hlis-Plaub Hlis Ntuj kev nqis peev kev loj hlob ntawm "xim", ntawm koj qhov kev soj ntsuam li cas?
Txawm hais tias lub Ib Hlis-Plaub Hlis Ntuj kev nqis peev tau ua tiav qhov kev loj hlob zoo, tab sis tam sim no kev pom ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse rau steel xav tau tiag tiag tsis zoo, peb ntseeg hais tias ntxiv rau cov lus hais saum toj no "cov nuj nqis tshiab", cov txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag thiab lub hauv paus qis. ntawm thawj lub quarter, muaj ob peb lub laj thawj rau cov hauv qab no.
Ib qho, txawm hais tias thawj ib nrab ntawm cov kev tsim kho vaj tse los txhawb cov hauv qab ntawm txoj cai kom ruaj khov kev loj hlob tau nce ntxiv, suav nrog kev ua ntej ntawm kev nqis peev hauv kev lag luam, kev tshaj tawm cov nuj nqis tshwj xeeb rau pem hauv ntej, cov nuj nqis tshwj xeeb hauv zos kom nce qhov loj ntawm qhov ceev ntawm kev tshaj tawm, thiab lwm yam. ., tab sis los ntawm txoj cai mus rau cov nyiaj nyob rau hauv qhov chaw, thiab tom qab ntawd mus rau lub tsim ntawm lub cev workload ntawm lub project nyob rau hauv av, feem ntau xav tau 6-9 lub hlis ntawm lub conduction voj voog, yog li ntawd, peb ntseeg hais tias cov infrastructure peev nyob rau hauv thawj zaug. ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav xav tau Qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo kom ua tiav cov haujlwm ntawm lub cev, thiab yog li tsim cov kev thov rau steel.
Qhov thib ob, kev kis tus kabmob kis mus rau ntau qhov chaw hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cuam tshuam rau lub sijhawm ntev, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj hauv kev tsim kho ntawm feem ntau cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho vaj tse, ua rau xyoo no lub caij tsim kho vaj tse tau hloov ntawm xyoo dhau los.
Thib peb, xyoo no cov qauv kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse kuj tau sib txawv.Los ntawm kev tawg, Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Plaub Hlis, hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob, roj thiab dej tsim thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nce 13.0%, kev lag luam kev tswj dej thiab cov chaw pej xeem tswj kev lag luam peev nce 12.0% thiab 7.1%, kev lag luam tsheb thauj mus los thiab kev tsheb ciav hlau kev lag luam yog nce 0.4% thiab qis dua 7.0%.Raws li tuaj yeem pom, cov kev ua haujlwm ib txwm muaj kev ua haujlwm tau qeeb, qhov kev sib txawv no hauv lub xyoo lossis yuav txuas ntxiv mus, tseem yuav coj cov kev hloov pauv rau cov kev thov steel.Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm niaj hnub infrastructure txoj kev xaiv tsa nyob rau hauv lub rooj tsavxwm, cov tshiab infrastructure xws li arithmetic network, cov ntaub ntawv chaw, ntse logistics, thiab lwm yam uas tsis suav nrog tej zaum yuav ua tau ntau dua peev kev loj hlob, tab sis lub tshiab infrastructure tsis pom tseeb rau steel xav tau tsav. .
Tus Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam: Yog tias "xim" ntawm cov txheej txheem hauv lub Ib Hlis-Plaub Hlis tsis txaus, tom ntej no, seb puas yuav muaj kev txhim kho ntxiv?
Nyob rau yav tav su ntawm lub Tsib Hlis 30, Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag tau thov kom nrawm tshaj tawm thiab siv cov nyiaj tshwj xeeb hauv tsoomfwv hauv nroog thiab nthuav dav cov kev txhawb nqa, thiab siv zog los txhawb kev loj hlob ruaj khov thiab kev nqis peev ruaj khov.Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev nce qib ntawm kev siv cov ntawv cog lus tshwj xeeb tshaj tawm nyob ib puag ncig zoo dua.Raws li lub Tsib Hlis 27, tag nrho ntawm 1.85 trillion yuan ntawm daim ntawv cog lus tshwj xeeb tshiab tau tshaj tawm, nce txog li 1.36 trillion yuan nyob rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, suav txog 54% ntawm cov ntawv txwv.Thiab Ministry of Finance tau hais tias cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag hauv lub xeev yuav tsum tau kho cov phiaj xwm tshwj xeeb tshaj tawm cov ntawv cog lus, tsim nyog xaiv lub sijhawm tshaj tawm, ua kom cov kev siv nyiaj nce ntxiv, kom ntseeg tau tias daim ntawv cog lus tshwj xeeb tshiab xyoo no los txog rau thaum lub Rau Hli pib pib, thiab siv zog ua. pib siv los ntawm lub Yim Hli kawg.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav tau ntawm infrastructure steel, peb ntseeg hais tias nrog rau lub rau hli ntuj mus rau lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, maj mam tuaj txog ntawm cov nyiaj rau kev tsim kho ntawm infrastructure tej yaam num nyob ib ncig ntawm lub teb chaws, infrastructure tej zaum yuav raug rub down tom qab muaj kev sib kis tau zoo. txhawm rau ua kom muaj kev vam meej, yog li peb cia siab tias qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tseem yuav muaj kev tso tawm cov phiaj xwm kev tsim kho kom haum raws li qhov xav tau, peb cia siab tias xyoo 2022 cov txheej txheem steel yuav tsum tau ua kom muaj kev loj hlob.Raws li cov qauv kev thov steel ntsuas los ntawm Nrhiav Steel, qhov nce xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv kev xav tau steel hauv xyoo 2022 tuaj yeem nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm 4% -7%.
Kev Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam: Ntxiv nrog rau kev tsim kho vaj tse, vaj tsev yog lwm qhov chaw siv loj rau cov hlau.2.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo poob hauv kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis, tab sis tsoomfwv hauv nroog tau ua qhov zoo tshaj plaws los txhawb kev lag luam vaj tsev.Koj xav li cas txog kev ua lag luam vaj tse rub ntawm "steel demand" xyoo no?
Txawm hais tias txoj cai tswj hwm vaj tsev tseem tab tom so, cov credit nruj kuj tig mus yooj yim, tab sis tam sim no txoj cai xa mus rau lub luag haujlwm ntawm vaj tse tsis pom tseeb.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev muag vaj tse, thaj chaw muag vaj tse nyob rau lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Plaub Hlis Ntuj poob 20.9% xyoo-rau-xyoo, kev tsim vaj tsev tshiab thiab thaj chaw ua tiav tau poob 26.3% thiab 11.9%, thaj chaw tsim vaj tsev nyob hauv ib xyoos ib zaug. -xyoo, qhov kev ua tau zoo tag nrho tseem nyuaj rau hais qhov zoo.Thiab tom qab ntawd los ntawm qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev yuav av av, vim kev muag vaj tse thiab kev tsim vaj tsev tseem tsis pom kev txhim kho, cov neeg tsim vaj tsev tau txaus siab coj cov av tsis zoo, 31 lub xeev thiab lub nroog cov nqi av tau poob qis ntau xyoo dhau los, Lub Ib Hlis-Plaub Hlis. thaj chaw av tau txais av tau poob qis los ntawm 46.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Thaum kawg los ntawm qhov xwm txheej ntawm vaj tse steel, vim hais tias 2022 Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Plaub Hlis muag vaj tse, kev tsim kho tshiab, kev yuav av tag nrho txuas ntxiv poob qis, peb cia siab tias tag nrho cov kev thov rau vaj tse steel hauv 2022 yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv cov nqes qis.Raws li cov lus qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim vaj tsev, qhov kev thov rau steel rau vaj tse nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav poob los ntawm 2% -5% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Post lub sij hawm: Jun-08-2022